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After months of pouring soldiers into eastern Ukraine, Russia’s progress essentially adds up to this: three small settlements and part of the city of Bakhmut, a high-profile battlefield with limited strategic value.
Settlements captured by Russia this year
A grid of the cities that Russia has taken this year so far
Compare that with what Moscow had hoped to achieve from its winter offensive by now: to seize the entire Donbas region — which contains dozens more settlements, some of them much larger than Bakhmut. To do that, Russia would have to recreate and win battles at the scale of Bakhmut again and again.
Settlements in the Donbas still controlled by Ukraine
A grid of the cities Ukraine still controls in the Donbas
Just 30 miles northwest
of Bakhmut, but much
larger, with more than
twice the prewar
population.
Prewar population: 185,000
Reclaimed by Ukraine
in September after
four months under
Russian control.
On the front line of the war
near the city of Donetsk.
Regular shelling has almost
completely destroyed the city.
Just 30 miles northwest of
Bakhmut, but much larger,
with more than twice the
prewar population.
Prewar population:
185,000
Reclaimed by Ukraine
in Sept. after four
months under Russian
control.
On the front line of the war
near the city of Donetsk.
Regular shelling has almost
completely destroyed the city.
Prewar population:
185,000
Just 30 miles northwest of Bakhmut,
but much larger, with more than
twice the prewar population.
Reclaimed by Ukraine in Sept. after four
months under Russian control.
On the front line of the war near the city of
Donetsk. Regular shelling has almost
completely destroyed the city.
Note: Population estimates according to the 2020 Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine.
Sources: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (areas of control) and OpenStreetMap (base map data)
The New York Times
A breakthrough for Russia appears increasingly unlikely. Regardless of the outcome in the fierce battle of Bakhmut, Moscow’s inability to gain substantial ground in the Donbas shows how little its offensive has achieved and how much its military has struggled to efficiently capture urban areas throughout the war.
After mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, Russia is no longer severely understaffed, as it was in the fall, when it lost large parts of the northeast in a surprise Ukrainian counteroffensive.
But even with more troops and firepower, Russia has, at best, only managed to inch forward, encountering well-prepared Ukrainian positions, protected by basements and buildings, with defensive lines heavily fortified from nearly a decade of fighting.
A map of the Donbas region showing areas held by Russia and Ukraine as of April 4, 2023.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (areas of control) and OpenStreetMap (base map data)
The New York Times
Ukrainians fought Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas region for years before the full-fledged invasion in February last year.
A Russian attack near the coal-mining town of Vuhledar this year ended in a rout after Ukrainian soldiers ambushed poorly organized columns of tanks. An attempt to capture the town of Avdiivka in recent weeks has not broken through, although Russian shelling barely seems to stop.
And a tenacious Ukrainian defense has held up against wave after wave of Russian attacks aimed at encircling Bakhmut, which was once home to around 70,000 people. The casualties on both sides have been enormous, but the land changing hands is minuscule.
The front line
Russian movements and frontlines around Bakhmut and Avdiivka as of March 31, 2023
Source: Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (Areas of control), Rochan Consulting (Russian Movement) and OpenStreetMap (base map data)
The New York Times
Russia has struggled to make gains because it had barely stablized itself after its losses in the fall before launching its winter offensive, Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute in Virginia, told the “War on the Rocks” podcast last month.
“The Russian military doesn’t have the force quality,” Mr. Kofman said. “It doesn’t necessarily seem to have the ammunition either. And it can’t replace junior leadership in such a short amount of time.”
Russia’s grinding advances in Bakhmut have been led by the Wagner private military company, which recruited tens of thousands of convicts from Russian prisons in exchange for the promise of freedom.
The prolonged and bloody fight for Bakhmut has depleted Wagner’s supply of prisoner recruits, according to Ukrainian officials, forcing it to use more of its professional recruits. Military analysts are skeptical that Russia could repeat its strategy of near-suicidal prisoner assaults that it has used in Bakhmut on any future Ukrainian cities.
The battles have imposed significant costs for Ukraine as well. Ukraine’s military is poised to launch a major counteroffensive this spring, and in continuing to try to hold Bakhmut, it has lost scores of battle-hardened soldiers that could have been used in its offensive. In the south, Kyiv will face Russia’s own well-prepared network of trenches, tank traps and minefields.
Ukrainian forces will also have to contend with persistent ammunition shortages. Western officials have raised concerns about the rate at which Ukraine is exhausting artillery stocks, firing thousands of shells per day as it defends Bakhmut at all costs. Western manufacturers are ramping up production, but it will take many months for new supplies to begin meeting demand.
How Russia’s Advances in the Donbas Region Have Slowed Since the War Began
For Russia’s winter offensive to have successfully captured the Donbas by the end of March, its military would have needed to recreate the momentum it had at the start of the war, when it caught Ukraine off guard and seized large areas of the country in a matter of weeks, including scores of settlements in eastern Ukraine.
But within months of the invasion, Russia’s rapid advances ran out of steam, even as it narrowed its ambitions and focused on eastern Ukraine. Despite mobilizing hundreds of thousands of fresh recruits, Russia’s winter offensive has fared even worse.
Settlements captured by Russia in the Donbas in the first week of the war
Russian forces poured into eastern Ukraine from the Russian border and across the front line that was established in 2014 by Russian proxy forces. Within days, they had captured a handful of settlements.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in February 2022.
In March 2022
Russia’s assault on Kyiv ground to a halt, but Russian forces captured scores of settlements in the Donbas, mostly in the Luhansk region.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in March 2022.
Sits on a crucial highway
that runs north to south
in Luhansk.
Sits on a crucial highway
that runs north to south
in Luhansk.
Sits on a crucial
highway that runs
north to south
in Luhansk.
In April 2022
Russia withdrew from Kyiv, the capital, and prioritized claiming the entire Donbas region. But its slow progress in Mariupol was an early sign that even its more modest war objectives would be difficult.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in April 2022.
Blue towns have since been reclaimed by Ukraine.
Russia took control of
most of Mariupol in April
after its artillery barrages
destroyed most of the city.
Russia took control of
most of Mariupol in April
after its artillery barrages
destroyed most of the city.
Blue towns have since been reclaimed by Ukraine.
Russia took control of most of Mariupol in April after its artillery barrages destroyed most of the city.
Blue towns have since been reclaimed by Ukraine.
In May 2022
Over the next few months, Russia appeared to be inching toward success in the Donbas region. It redeployed troops from Mariupol and captured key cities such as Popasna and Rubizhne.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in May 2022.
In June 2022
Russia continued to make slow, steady progress in the Donbas. It captured key cities after repeating the type of indiscriminate shelling that left Mariupol largely destroyed but in Russian hands.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in June 2022.
After enduring months of artillery fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sievierodonetsk.
After enduring months of artillery fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sievierodonetsk.
After enduring months of artillery fire, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Sievierodonetsk.
In July 2022
By early July, Russia had seized control of Luhansk, one of the two provinces that make up the Donbas. But that turned out to be the end of its winning streak.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in July 2022.
After victory in Rubizhne to the north and Popasna to the south in May, Russia focused its efforts on Sievierodonetsk and neighboring Lysychansk.
Russian forces entered the city on June 25 and completed their capture in eight days.
Russian forces entered the city on June 25 and completed their capture in eight days.
Russian forces entered the city on June 25 and completed their capture in eight days.
In August 2022
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in August 2022.
In September 2022
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in September 2022.
In October 2022
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in October 2022.
In November 2022
In Zaitseve, near Bakhmut, Russia made its last gain in the Donbas of 2022, alongside a retreat from the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in November 2022.
In December 2022
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in December 2022.
In January 2023
Russia launched its winter offensive with attacks on multiple fronts across the eastern front line, but its only success was in capturing small settlements near Bakhmut.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in January 2022.
Russia captured the small salt-mining town. Months of fierce artillery battles had damaged much of Soledar.
Russia captured the small salt-mining town. Months of fierce artillery battles had damaged much of Soledar.
In February 2023
Russian forces tried to encircle Bakhmut to the north and south, capturing the village of Krasna Hora in the process. Ukraine successfully held back Russia’s attacks elsewhere in the Donbas.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in February 2022.
In March 2023
Russian forces steadily advanced into Bakhmut, but Ukrainian forces still control some of the west of the city.
Grid of cities taken by Russia in the Donbas in March 2022.
Area still
controlled
by Ukraine
